Survey obce

Desde hace unos meses recibo cada mes un e-mail del Banco Central Europeo. Donde se nos resume la situación de Europa en unos pocos indicadores y se nos pide qué haríamos si subir, mantener o bajar tipos. Me parece una buena iniciativa esta de jugar a ser gobernador del BCE. Llevo meses respondiendo "C" aunque creo que el próximo ya será "B". Todavía no lo recibía pero apuesto (quiero creer) que el verano pasado la opinión de la mayoría era la de bajar tipos. El BCE tardó en reaccionar. Os paso el último,

"Democratizing the European Central Bank (ECB) Watch June 2009 Survey

Dear ECB watcher,

Last month, a 55.64 percent of our watchers thought that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem should be reduced, 2.54 percent believed that it should be raised and 41.82 percent thought that it should be maintained. The Governing Council of the ECB decided to reduce the key ECB interest rates by a further 25 basis points at its 7 May 2009 meeting to 1.00 per cent.

What should we recommend this month? Here is some information that has become available since then, related to the evolution of the euro area economy:

- Construction output down by 1.0%
- Trade surplus 0.4 bn euro
- Construction output down by 1.8%
- Annual inflation stable at 0.6%
- GDP down by 2.5%
- Industrial production down by 2.0%


Once again, the question you have to answer is: If you were a member of the ECB's Governing Council, what would you vote at its 4 June 2009 meeting?

A: Raise the interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 25 basis points or more
B: Keep the interest rate on the main refinancing operations at the current 1.00 percent
C: Lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations 25 basis points or more

Please, notice that, as one of our members points out, we are trying to
make a policy recommendation, and not to outguess the ECB Council.

If you want to join this initiative to democratize the ECB watch, please
reply A, B, or C.

Thank you very much for your participation."


J

pd: la canción del post. "Annie's song". Una auténtica joya de John Denver que como Paul Simon, o últimamente U2, ha trascendido lo musical y se han convertido en himnos religiosos.